State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s mid-year state revenue analysis predicts that for the sixth consecutive year, New York is unlikely to reach the tax-collection projections in its financial plan.
The report, released today, shows that tax collections in the first six months of the fiscal year totaled $31.6 billion, $213 million less than projected and 0.2 percent lower than last year at the same time. To make up for the revenue so far, collections would have to increase 6.4 percent for the remainder of the fiscal year, which ends March 31.
The comptroller cautioned that the volatile economy and uncertainty in the financial sector could weaken current revenue projections. The financial plan anticipates other revenues that may not materialize, the analysis said, such as $250 million from health insurance-plan privatization, $129 million from Native-American casinos and a loss in federal revenue through sequestration.
“Tax collections continue to lag behind expectations. We are not seeing the level of growth in tax revenues that is needed to meet year-end projections even though targets were lowered,” said DiNapoli, who also released the September cash report today.
Other key findings include:
—Personal income-tax collections are slightly below what was projected—$13.9 billion through September, down 0.5 percent from the same time last year and $6 million less than projected. To meet current year-end projections, the general fund personal income-tax would have to grow 9.6 percent and withholding collections (the largest single revenue source outside federal receipts) would have to increase 5.7 percent in the second half of the fiscal year.
—Consumption taxes are up slightly over last year—$4.5 billion, 0.3 percent higher than the same period in the 2011-12 fiscal year. General fund consumption and use tax collections would have to increase 2.8 percent and sales taxes 2.7 percent in the last six months of the fiscal year.
—Business taxes are up, but not as much as projected. They were 2.8 percent higher—$67.4 million—for the first six months but $106.7 million less than estimates for the same period. They would have to grow 6.2 percent in the next six months to meet year-end projections.
—Miscellaneous receipts were $508.1 million higher than expected at $11.7 billion through September, $827.7 million more than the same time last year. A civil settlement with Standard Charter Bank accounts for $340 million of that, the comptroller found.
2012 Midyear Revenue